Effects of management and climate change: Lakes
WP5.2 will address the impact of catchment management strategies and climate change on pressures and ecological status of lakes. The workpackage will specifically:
- assess the impacts of catchment management strategies on BQEs and ecological status of lakes. The pressures addressed include eutrophication and hydromorphological alterations (mainly water level fluctuation),
- assess the impacts of climate change on ecological status of lakes, focusing on impacts on the thresholds used to set the good/moderate class boundary for the various BQEs,
- assess the uncertainty and risks of failing to achieve and maintain the good status objective under various climate change scenarios,
- develop and apply models and tools that can be used for estimating the required pressure levels to achieve good ecological status and
- develop guidelines for using case-specific mechanistic models/empirical analysis of large datasets for designing the programme of measures under climate change.
Driver-pressure-impact-response-recovery chains (DPIRR chains) are developed to describe the main pressure parameters impacting BQEs at he species and metric level, and their interactions. The effects of pressure reduction and recovery on BQEs is analysed with data sources on restoration measures and is compared to the effects of degradation within each water category. The effects of global/climate change on degradation and on recovery processes is estimated from the comparison of pressure and impact data along latitudinal gradients and is combined wit respective driver-pressure-impact- response-recovery chains.
Twon major lake case studies are analysed in particular with respect to the effects of climate change: Lake Pyhjärvi (Finland) and Lake Veluwe (the Netherlands). In addition, data from various northern and central European lakes will be used to analyse and predict changes of BQEs due to nutrient reduction and management of water level fluctuations.
Outcome and products
Palaeoecological data from 13 lakes has been analysed to estimate changes (reductions) in nutrient loads. The observed changes do reflect recovery processes, while these processes have reached different stages in each of the case study lakes. However, lake recovery is a long-term process and the present assemblages remain very different from those recorded in the past (pre-enrichment) samples. Recovery is more significant in deep lakes. Climate change and management scenarios can be analysed for 181 Norwegian lakes using the 'MyLake' model by NIVA. A report has been drafted on the 'Analysis of modelling approaches in the case study lakes (Deliverable D5.2-1). Recently, a 'LakeLoadResponse' (LLR) internet tool has been published online at (Link to LLR tool). At present, this software is restricted to estimations of total nitrogen target nutrient loads (TN) based on Finish lake datasets. Further updates including other nutrient parameters are under construction.
LakeLoadResponce (LLR) - Webbased tool for planning of river basin management
At present, this software is restricted to estimations of total nitrogen target nutrient loads (TN) based on Finish lake datasets. Further updates including other nutrient parameters are under construction. With this tool you can get estimates of the amount of loading reduction needed to achieve good water quality in a lake.
Relevance for end users
The outcome of workpackage 5.2 will help water managers and end users to identify and set target values for nutrients for lake management. The tolls developed in this workpackage will also assist end users in estimating the possible implications of global and climate change on lake monitoring and restoration.